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钢价上涨难对废钢形成提振

2018-01-24

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       近日，国内废钢市场走势不太乐观，各地废钢价格“跌跌不休”。据金联创统计数据显示，进入1月中旬以来，唐山精炉料价格已经跌至2240至2390元/吨，累计跌幅130元/吨;张家港沙钢一级炉料价格跌至2500元/吨，累计跌幅160元/吨。虽然近几日钢材价格出现小幅回升，预计后期废钢价格仍难走高。

　　首先，从成品材市场来看。近几日钢材价格出现小幅回升，但市场整体成交表现仍然较为一般。经过前期大跌之后，钢材市场风险得以释放，进一步下跌的空间有限。但在需求端并无起色的情况下，预计短期钢价上行空间将较为有限。对废钢等原料的提振作用，也将较为有限。

　　其次，从钢厂方面来看。随着钢市淡季的深入，成品材终端需求越发低迷。在成材销售较为乏力的情况下，钢厂生产积极性正在逐渐减弱，对废钢等原料的使用量也在逐渐降低。

　　Z后，从废钢市场来看。受近期主导钢厂沙钢废钢采购价格连续大跌的影响，市场看空情绪明显增强。

　　综合以上分析来看，虽然近期成品材价格略有小幅探涨，但对废钢市场影响并不大。目前各地市场废钢资源偏多，钢厂到货情况较好。加之多数钢厂废钢库存均已处于较高水平，因此短期钢厂采购废钢的积极性将难以出现明显的提升。另外，需求淡季中，钢厂生产积极性正在逐渐降低，废钢整体消耗量将会出现下降。预计近期废钢市场仍将保持稳中偏弱的运行格局。