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冬季限产结束后中国钢企当会如何？且听必和必拓怎么说

2018-02-23

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       中国的钢铁厂马上就要全面复工了。随着史无前例的冬季限产即将于未来几周结束，必和必拓预计，中国这个产钢大国的工厂将会提高产量，整个二季度会持续提高开工率以弥补限产带来的产量损失。

　　必和必拓首席商务官Arnoud Balhuizen发布了这家世界头号矿业公司对铁矿石和钢材等大宗商品的前景预期，据他称，随着中国各省走出旨在控制空气污染的冬季限产期，产量恢复将会是一个渐进过程。从目前看，产量限制将从3月中旬开始放松。

　　“我们预期中的基线情境是，各地限产期将分阶段结束，钢铁厂开工率料会在二季度某个时候恢复到限产前的水平，”Balhuizen在与本周发布的全年业绩同时发表的在线评论中说。“感应炉永久性关闭留下的建筑用钢供应缺口使得这种高开工率成为了一种必要。”

　　中国通过关闭钢厂抑制多余产能以及通过冬季限产控制空气污染的举动受到了矿企和投资者的密切关注。这种双管齐下的行动使得钢材价格得到了支撑，同时也激发了高品位铁矿石的需求，从而使必和必拓、力拓和淡水河谷等铁矿石生产商受益匪浅。不过据Balhuizen称，虽然高品位铁矿石仍将受到追捧，但其平均价格可能会下降，鉴于中国房地产和汽车行业增速的放缓，中国的需求增长今年或许会出现下降。

　　“虽说要让均价保持在刚刚结束的去年下半年的水平困难很大，但是我们依然乐观地认为，品位62%铁矿石价格会具有相对的韧性，”Balhuizen说。该品位铁矿石价格是整个铁矿石价格的基准，品位58%铁矿石价格出现了下降，品位65%铁矿石则一直需求旺盛。